Shaun Marcum’s First Outing a Cause for Concern?


Coming off a disappointment of an opening-weekend, the Brewers took to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field against arguably their most hated rival, the Chicago Cubs, on Monday night, for the start of a three-game series against Cubs manager Dale Sveum’s young bunch.

Milwaukee took the opening game of their four-game set against Chicago by a 7-5 mark thanks to timely hitting from Ryan Braun, Alex Gonzalez, Mat Gamel and Rickie Weeks.  On the bump for Ron Roenicke was Shaun Marcum, who in his first outing of the young 2012 season tossed six solid innings of five-hit ball, striking out six while walking none.  He looked a bit shaky early-on, allowing three runs to cross home on two home runs.

While it’s true that Marcum provided more than enough reason to believe he’s capable of returning to the road-warrior Brewers fans witnessed last season — in 16 away-from-home starts, he went 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .202 BAA and 3.57 K/BB ratio — it’s also true that Milwaukee’s 30-year-old tried-and-true right-hander seemed a bit out of sorts in his first start of 2012.

Maybe it was the fact that Marcum missed virtually all of spring training with a seasonally sore right shoulder.  Maybe it was the fact that he was pitching in sub-freezing temperatures in the windiest city in North America.  Maybe it was the lingering negativity from his abysmal 2011 postseason performance.  Whatever the case, it’s clear that Marcum wasn’t his normal self Monday night at Wrigley Field.

Among other things, Marcum struggled to find his rhythm early on and he paid a hefty toll for it, allowing two home runs to Cubs hitters — he allowed just eight home runs to the opposition in 16 of his road starts last season.

A big reason — probably the biggest reason — for Marcum’s masked deficiencies on the mound Monday night, in front of a national television audience no less, was his unambiguous inconsistencies in pounding the strike-zone.  Normally, this is one of the strongest facets to his game, but that was hardly the case last night.

The chart below shows Marcum’s strike-zone plot against Chicago hitters.

Based on this chart along, it’s extremely difficult if not impossible to predict what Marcum’s plan-of-attack could have been to get Chicago hitters out.  Hardly ever will you hear of a major league pitcher who comes into a start without a specific scheme to try and retire hitters. This chart alone tells us that Marcum was clearly not his full-sell last night.

Compare the above chart with a start he made last season against Chicago hitters — at Wrigley Field — on September 20. That game, he tossed eight complete innings of five-hit ball, fanning seven batters, walking none while allowing just one earned run to cross home.

The plot below reveals Marcum’s strike-zone plot from that game.

As you can plainly see, his pitch location is much more condensed and the number of pitches labeled as “called strikes” remain much more centralized in the strike-zone than that from Monday night’s performance. His pitches labeled as “swinging-strikes” are much lower in the zone and that portends that he was definitely on his game that night, a stark contrast from his first outing of the season Monday night.

It would be a bit over-the-top to label Marcum’s first start of the season as one with much cause for concern, so we’ll hold off on pushing the panic button for now. However, it’s clear that Marcum has work to do from here on out with respect to his pitch-location within the strike-zone.

Once he gets that cleared up — as we all expect him to — he’ll be well on his way toward being the rock-solid anchor to Milwaukee’s rotation in 2012.


Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report.  Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog.

3 Comments

It looks as though if he just keeps to his usual game of pounding the strike zone and he should be fine this year. I don’t think it will be pitching that’s the concern this year, you never know, but I don’t think so.
-Mateo
http://mateofischer.mlblogs.com

Couldn’t have said it any better myself, Mateo. If he can get roughly the same run support per game he did last season (5.79), I think he’ll be just fine. Thanks for the comment, as always.

I didn’t even know that stat, but I would say that any pitcher could succeed with run support coming at that clip.
-Mateo
http://mateofischer.mlblogs.com

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